The US-China Rivalry

Watch

• China literally controls the US economy. The U.S China Trade War Explained. ↗Money Uncharted
• Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison ↗TED
• America v China: why the trade war won't end soon ↗The Economist
• America v China: a new kind of cold war ↗The Economist
• Why Taiwan is caught between China and the US - BBC World Service ↗BBC World Service
• US-China rivalry: What`s behind the growing tensions? | To the Point ↗DW News

Read

• Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? ↗A compelling historical analysis of great power transitions, framing the US-China dynamic through the lens of the Peloponnesian War.Graham Allison
• The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower ↗An insider's account of China's alleged long-term strategy to supplant American global dominance, offering a provocative read on Beijing's ambitions.Michael Pillsbury
• Has China Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy ↗A Singaporean diplomat's provocative argument that America's missteps and China's strategic patience are reshaping the global order, challenging Western assumptions.Kishore Mahbubani
• The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order ↗A detailed examination of China's evolving grand strategy since the Cold War, revealing its methodical approach to challenging American global leadership.Rush Doshi
• The Sources of Chinese ConductA seminal essay, echoing Kennan's Cold War analysis, that dissects the internal drivers and external implications of China's ascent on the global stage.Susan L. Shirk
• The Myth of the Thucydides TrapA trenchant realist counter-argument to the Thucydides Trap thesis, asserting that structural power dynamics, rather than historical inevitability, dictate the US-China rivalry.John J. Mearsheimer

Voices to follow

• Graham Allison ↗His work on the 'Thucydides Trap' provides a compelling framework for understanding the inherent dangers in the US-China power transition.Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard University
• Susan Shirk ↗A former State Department official, she offers nuanced insights into China's internal political dynamics and their implications for US foreign policy.Research Professor and Chair of the 21st Century China Center, University of California San Diego
• Kevin Rudd ↗His unique blend of high-level political experience and deep academic understanding of China, including fluency in Mandarin, offers a rare perspective on the bilateral relationship.President and CEO, Asia Society; former Prime Minister of Australia
• Minxin Pei ↗A sharp critic of Beijing's authoritarianism, he provides incisive analysis on China's political trajectory and its impact on global affairs.Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government, Claremont McKenna College
• Elizabeth Economy ↗Her extensive research illuminates China's environmental policies, technological ambitions, and its evolving role in global governance.Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Glossary

• AllianceAn alliance is a formal agreement between two or more countries to work together, often for mutual protection or to achieve shared goals. They promise to support each other, especially in times of conflict. For example, if Country A and Country B form an alliance, they might agree to defend each other if either is attacked by Country C.
• DiplomacyDiplomacy is the process of countries talking to each other and negotiating to solve problems, make agreements, and maintain peaceful relationships. It's how governments manage their interactions. For example, when leaders from the US and China meet to discuss climate change or trade issues, they are engaging in diplomacy.
• GeopoliticsGeopolitics is the study of how a country's geography – like its location, size, and resources – affects its power and relationships with other countries. It helps explain why certain regions or trade routes are important. For example, understanding the geopolitics of the South China Sea helps explain why both the US and China are interested in controlling shipping lanes there.
• Hard PowerHard power is a country's ability to influence others using military strength or economic pressure. It involves using force or threats to get what it wants. For example, a country using its strong navy to patrol international waters or threatening to stop trading with another country is using hard power.
• Human RightsHuman rights are the basic freedoms and protections that all people are entitled to, no matter where they live or who they are. These include rights like freedom of speech, religion, and the right to a fair trial. For example, when one country criticizes another for not allowing its citizens to protest peacefully, it's often an issue related to human rights.
• Soft PowerSoft power is a country's ability to influence other countries through its culture, values, and ideas, rather than through military force or economic pressure. It's about attracting and persuading others. For example, the popularity of Hollywood movies or Indian yoga around the world is a form of soft power, making other countries more open to American or Indian ideas.
• SuperpowerA superpower is a country that is extremely powerful and can influence events all over the world, not just in its own region. It has a very strong economy, military, and cultural impact. For example, both the United States and China are considered superpowers because their decisions and actions affect many other countries globally.
• Supply ChainA supply chain is the entire network of companies, people, and activities involved in making a product and getting it from raw materials to the final customer. It includes everything from manufacturing to shipping. For example, the supply chain for a smartphone might involve minerals from Africa, chips from Taiwan, assembly in China, and then shipping to stores worldwide.
• TariffsTariffs are special taxes that a government places on goods coming into the country from another country. These taxes make imported products more expensive, encouraging people to buy local goods instead. For example, if the US puts a tariff on Chinese-made shoes, those shoes will cost more in American stores, making American-made shoes seem cheaper.
• Trade WarA trade war happens when two or more countries try to hurt each other's economies by putting up barriers to trade, like special taxes on imported goods. They hope this will make their own products more competitive. For example, when the US and China placed extra taxes on each other's goods, like steel or electronics, it was part of a trade war.

Threads 10

Where this connects to other fields, and why it's worth knowing.

• Game Theory & Strategy Mathematics

  The most dangerous moment between two rival nations isn't when the challenger is strongest. It's when it's rising fast and can't promise to stay peaceful once it overtakes you. The current top dog is tempted to strike now, while it still can win. So 'preventive war' isn't crazy; it's a trust problem, because nobody can make a promise about the future stick.

• Strategy & Competitive Advantage Business

  The reigning superpower acts like a big, comfortable company that got rich off the current rules, so it's slow and scared to change them. A hungry rising rival is the scrappy startup with nothing to lose, free to try the bold, disruptive move. That's why the challenger often gambles first while the champion clings to what made it great.

• Market Failure & Externalities Economics

  The world's top power secretly runs a giant charity: guarding shipping lanes, bailing out crises, keeping trade flowing, stuff everyone benefits from whether they pay or not. The scary moment comes when an old power weakens and a rising one is big enough to matter but unwilling to foot the bill. Then nobody's covering the tab, and the whole system can wobble, a trap named after economist Kindleberger.

• Cognitive Biases Psychology

  Your brain hates losing something you already have far more than it enjoys gaining something new. Scale that up to countries: a fading superpower will fight desperately to keep its top spot, harder than a rising one fights to take it. That's what makes a nation in decline so dangerous. It feels its slipping like a painful loss.

• Scientific Instruments & Measurement Science

  Who builds the biggest quantum lab or particle collider is now part of the US-China power struggle. That's because the same giant machines that let scientists discover new things also stretch what a military can build and reach.

• Chokepoints & Strategic Waterways Geography

  Most of China's oil arrives by ship through one narrow gap of sea, the Malacca Strait, and the US Navy is strong enough to block it. So the US-China standoff is really a fight over a spot on the map. The clash happens on a chart of the ocean long before any missile flies.

• The Population Question Sociology

  China might get old before it gets rich, while immigration keeps America stocked with young workers. So the contest between the two superpowers might not be settled by weapons at all, but by how many babies and newcomers each one has.

• Renewable Energy Environment

  Going green means loads of batteries and rare-earth metals, and China dominates both. So the West ditching oil could mean leaning on its biggest rival instead. Escaping one dependence walks you straight into another.

• Semiconductors & the Chip War Technology

  The real front line between the US and China isn't a border, it's a handful of Dutch machines that carve the world's best chips. Whoever controls that chokepoint controls AI, which turns a supply chain into a weapon.

• International Trade & Global Finance Economics

  The US and China economies are so tangled together that a war would wreck both at once. That mutual damage used to keep the peace, like two people tied to the same rope. Now both sides are deliberately untying it, giving up money for the sake of security.