Catastrophic & Existential Risk

What this subject explores

• Existential vs catastrophic risk
• Expected value & long-termism
• Irreversibility and lock-in
• Neglectedness of tail risks
• Risk from emerging technology

Sources & further reading

• Cambridge: Understanding global catastrophic risks ↗
• Oxford: Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority ↗

Key people

• Martin ReesHelped bring scientists and philosophers together to study threats to humanity’s future.
• Toby OrdExamines humanity’s long-term future and risks to its potential.
• Nancy ChabotServed as coordination lead for NASA’s DART mission.
• Lalitha SundaramInvestigates governance of emerging biotechnology and its risks.

Timeline

• 1970 · Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty enters into forceA framework for nuclear non-proliferation, peaceful cooperation and disarmament.
• 2012 · Cambridge proposes a centre for existential-risk researchPhilosophy, science and technology meet around extreme risks.
• 2019 · Cambridge calls for stronger catastrophic-risk policyResearch turns toward government assessment and prevention.
• 2022 · DART changes an asteroid moon’s orbitA controlled demonstration tests one protective capability.
• 2023 · The Era of Global Risk is publishedAn open collection connects research traditions.

Read

• Cambridge: Understanding global catastrophic risks
• Oxford: Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority
• Introduction
• Dr Toby Ord
• Beyond ‘Error and Terror’: Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk
• Governments are failing to understand global catastrophic risks and need to take urgent action, says new report
• MSc in Global Governance and Diplomacy
• Risk and Disaster Science MSc
• Master of Arts / Master of Science in Disaster Management
• Nancy Chabot
• Behind the Spacecraft: NASA’s DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test
• Probing the Improbable
• Existential Risk and Science Governance
• NASA Confirms DART Mission Impact Changed Asteroid’s Motion in Space
• Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
• Humanity’s last invention and our uncertain future
• The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies
• Disaster risk
• The disaster risk reduction glossary
• Natural Global Catastrophic Risks
• Briefing note on systemic risk

Watch

• Behind the Spacecraft: NASA’s DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection TestSee a concrete example of designing and testing a protective intervention.NASA
• The Era of Global Risk PanelHear researchers compare natural hazards, AI and the future of risk research.University of Cambridge CSER
• Probing the ImprobableA historical lecture on uncertainty and the ethics of catastrophic risk; the recording was posted in 2009.University of Oxford · Toby Ord

Listen

• Probing the ImprobableAn institutional conversation connecting evidence, uncertainty and decisions.University of Oxford

Voices to follow

• Oxford Martin AI Governance InitiativeFollow work on technical and international AI governance.Research centre
• Johns Hopkins Applied Physics LaboratoryFollow the engineering and observations behind protective capabilities.Planetary-defence research
• CSER public lecture seriesCompare researchers’ explanations of distinct catastrophic risks.Interdisciplinary research discussion

Debates

• Should a prevention budget prioritise the worst conceivable outcomes?Compare the case for: Irreversible losses deserve attention even when evidence is incomplete. With the concern: Speculative cases can crowd out well-established needs.
• Should high-impact research face international oversight?Compare the case for: Consequences may cross borders that national rules cannot cover. With the concern: An inflexible system can concentrate power and slow beneficial work.
• Can present-day welfare and protection of future generations be planned together?Compare the case for: Reliable institutions and public health can benefit both. With the concern: Trade-offs remain when resources and priorities conflict.

Glossary

• Global catastrophic riskA risk of extreme harm across much of the world; definitions and thresholds vary.
• Existential riskA risk to humanity’s survival or the permanent loss of its long-term potential.
• HazardA possible source of harm, distinguished from the people and systems exposed to it.
• VulnerabilityConditions that make an exposed person or system susceptible to harm.
• Deep uncertaintyA situation where decision-makers cannot confidently agree on models, probabilities or outcomes.
• ScenarioA conditional account of what could happen under stated assumptions; not automatically a forecast.
• Recovery capacityThe ability to restore essential functions and retain viable ways forward after disruption.
• PreventionAction taken before harm occurs to avoid creating or realising a risk.
• Risk governanceThe institutions, responsibilities and decision processes used to address risk.
• Intergenerational ethicsReasoning about responsibilities to people who will live after us.

Student research

Published policy papers by One Young India delegates, every delegate leaves published under their own name.

• AI-Augmented Multimodal Risk Prediction of Breast Cancer Using Polygenic Scores, Lifestyle Data, and Temporal EMR ModelingAnjali Desai
• Global Emissions and Carbon Offsetting: Examining Conservational Approaches and Regulatory GapsVinayak Raj
• The Rise of Teen Investors: Risk or Revolution? Policy Solutions for a Safer Retail MarketDherya Gupta
• The Decline of Regional Languages in India, Preserving Linguistic Diversity in a Globalized EraSajinkya Sharan Gupta
• Global Inflation after the Pandemic: Cyclical Pressures, Structural Drivers, and Policy MisstepsGayatri Satish
• Capitalism and Global Inequality: A Unified AnalysisRuveer Vohra