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Catastrophic & Existential Risk
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Catastrophic & Existential Risk
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Global Challenges
Catastrophic & Existential Risk
Global catastrophic risks threaten severe harm across the world; existential risks threaten human extinction or an irreversible loss of humanity's long-term potential. Studying them means comparing uncertain hazards, preventing escalation and protecting future generations.
Sources: Introduction · Dr Toby Ord · Beyond ‘Error and Terror’: Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk
What this subject explores
- Existential vs catastrophic risk
- Expected value & long-termism
- Irreversibility and lock-in
- Neglectedness of tail risks
- Risk from emerging technology
Sources & further reading
- Cambridge: Understanding global catastrophic risks ↗
- Oxford: Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority ↗
- Introduction ↗
- Dr Toby Ord ↗
- Beyond ‘Error and Terror’: Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk ↗
- Governments are failing to understand global catastrophic risks and need to take urgent action, says new report ↗
- MSc in Global Governance and Diplomacy ↗
- Risk and Disaster Science MSc ↗
- Master of Arts / Master of Science in Disaster Management ↗
- Nancy Chabot ↗
- Behind the Spacecraft: NASA’s DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test ↗
- Probing the Improbable ↗
- Existential Risk and Science Governance ↗
- NASA Confirms DART Mission Impact Changed Asteroid’s Motion in Space ↗
- Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons ↗
- Humanity’s last invention and our uncertain future ↗
- The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies ↗
- Disaster risk ↗
- The disaster risk reduction glossary ↗
- Natural Global Catastrophic Risks ↗
- Briefing note on systemic risk ↗
Put your curiosity to work
Careers in Catastrophic & Existential Risk
These are related lines of work, not a single regulated profession. Emerging roles are possible directions, not forecasts of vacancies. Begin with a strong discipline and practise explaining its limits to other people.
Roles today
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Risk policy analyst
Compare prevention options and make assumptions visible in public decisions.
Skills to build
- Policy analysis
- Clear writing
- Evidence appraisal
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Safety and assurance engineer
Test whether protections still work when components or assumptions fail.
Skills to build
- Systems engineering
- Failure analysis
- Verification
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Public-health preparedness researcher
Study how institutions can detect outbreaks and maintain essential services.
Skills to build
- Epidemiology
- Statistics
- Research ethics
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Planetary-defence scientist
Connect observations, orbital models and international response planning.
Skills to build
- Physics
- Programming
- Uncertainty analysis
Emerging roles
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Frontier-technology governance researcher
Investigate how new capabilities change oversight needs.
Skills to build
- Technology assessment
- Law and policy
- Scenario analysis
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Long-horizon resilience analyst
Compare interventions that preserve recovery options across uncertain futures.
Skills to build
- Decision analysis
- Systems modelling
- Stakeholder research
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Risk communication specialist
Explain uncertainty without turning scenarios into predictions.
Skills to build
- Communication
- Behavioural research
- Source checking
Where subjects meet
-
Science-policy researcher
Translate technical evidence into cooperative institutions.
Skills to build
- Diplomacy
- Policy writing
- Scientific literacy
-
Decision researcher
Examine choices when probabilities are disputed or evidence is sparse.
Skills to build
- Probability
- Sensitivity analysis
- Critical reasoning
-
Technology ethics researcher
Ask who bears a risk and whose future is represented.
Skills to build
- Ethics
- Argument analysis
- Public consultation
Find your direction
Compare the choices that shape this path. There is no score or single right answer.
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Which part of a risk problem draws you in?
Both routes require evidence and communication.
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What would you like to produce?
A useful recommendation explains where its model could be wrong.
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How will you demonstrate judgement?
Neither exercise needs a precise probability for human extinction.
Where to study Catastrophic & Existential Risk
Institutions and programmes to explore. Check each institution’s current programme and entry requirements before applying.
University of Oxford
United KingdomMSc in Global Governance and Diplomacy
A route into institutions and international cooperation, rather than a specialist extinction-risk qualification.
UCL
United KingdomRisk and Disaster Science MSc
Develop quantitative tools for hazards, exposure and vulnerability.
Tata Institute of Social Sciences
IndiaMA / MSc in Disaster Management
Study disaster research and practice across social, policy and scientific perspectives.
Watch
- Behind the Spacecraft: NASA’s DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test ↗See a concrete example of designing and testing a protective intervention.NASA
- The Era of Global Risk Panel ↗Hear researchers compare natural hazards, AI and the future of risk research.University of Cambridge CSER
- Probing the Improbable ↗A historical lecture on uncertainty and the ethics of catastrophic risk; the recording was posted in 2009.University of Oxford · Toby Ord
Read
- Introduction ↗A short orientation to the questions and research traditions of existential-risk studies.SJ Beard, Martin Rees, Catherine Richards and Clarissa Rios Rojas
- Existential Risk and Science Governance ↗Consider how scientific institutions influence which risks are noticed and managed.Lalitha Sundaram
- Beyond ‘Error and Terror’: Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk ↗Examine who creates risks, who bears harms and whose voice shapes decisions.Natalie Jones
- Natural Global Catastrophic Risks ↗Compare natural hazards with the vulnerabilities of interconnected societies.Lara Mani, Doug Erwin and Lindley Johnson
Voices to follow
- Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative ↗Follow work on technical and international AI governance.Research centre
- Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory ↗Follow the engineering and observations behind protective capabilities.Planetary-defence research
- CSER public lecture series ↗Compare researchers’ explanations of distinct catastrophic risks.Interdisciplinary research discussion
Glossary
- Global catastrophic riskA risk of extreme harm across much of the world; definitions and thresholds vary.
- Existential riskA risk to humanity’s survival or the permanent loss of its long-term potential.
- HazardA possible source of harm, distinguished from the people and systems exposed to it.
- VulnerabilityConditions that make an exposed person or system susceptible to harm.
- Deep uncertaintyA situation where decision-makers cannot confidently agree on models, probabilities or outcomes.
- ScenarioA conditional account of what could happen under stated assumptions; not automatically a forecast.
- Recovery capacityThe ability to restore essential functions and retain viable ways forward after disruption.
- PreventionAction taken before harm occurs to avoid creating or realising a risk.
- Risk governanceThe institutions, responsibilities and decision processes used to address risk.
- Intergenerational ethicsReasoning about responsibilities to people who will live after us.
Threads 5
Where this connects to other fields, and why it's worth knowing.
- Probability, Risk & Uncertainty Mathematics
Extreme risks expose the difference between a precise-looking number and a well-supported probability. Probability provides tools for expressing assumptions; catastrophic-risk cases test where those tools become fragile.
Sources: Probing the Improbable ↗ · Introduction ↗
- Ethics and Moral Philosophy Philosophy
Preventing irreversible harm raises questions about obligations to future people and justice for those affected now. Ethics helps distinguish a factual risk estimate from a judgement about what deserves protection.
Sources: Beyond ‘Error and Terror’: Global Justice and Global Catastrophic Risk ↗ · Dr Toby Ord ↗
- Global Governance & Collective Action Global Challenges
A risk that crosses borders cannot be managed entirely by isolated decisions. Global governance provides agreements and coordination, while catastrophic-risk analysis asks whether those arrangements cover the full consequences.
Sources: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons ↗ · Governments are failing to understand global catastrophic risks and need to take urgent action, says new report ↗
- Systemic & Cascading Risk Global Challenges
A hazard need not cause all its damage directly. Cascades through food, infrastructure and institutions can turn a severe shock into a much wider threat and affect prospects for recovery.
Sources: Natural Global Catastrophic Risks ↗ · Briefing note on systemic risk ↗
- Space Exploration & the New Space Age Science
Planetary defence turns a class of natural hazard into a practical problem of observation, orbital modelling and tested intervention. Space research supplies the measurements; catastrophic-risk analysis asks what the test demonstrates and what remains unprotected.
Sources: Nancy Chabot ↗ · NASA Confirms DART Mission Impact Changed Asteroid’s Motion in Space ↗